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发布时间 : 2009/12/26 21:10:54  

综合国力 加拿大排全球第四中国排第七
 来源:台湾《经济日报》


中国社会科学院24日公布两份《黄皮书》指出,在主要国家中,中国的综合国力排名全球第七。预期美元将会长期走软,在历经过去一年多油价巨幅波动后,中国大陆经济在全球的相对地位则将增强。

  社科院昨天公布《世界经济黄皮书》与《国际形势黄皮书》。《国际形势黄皮书》对全球11个主要国家的综合国力进行评估,排名依序为:美国、日本、德国、加拿大、法国、俄罗斯、中国、英国、印度、义大利、巴西。

  黄皮书称,美国作为超级大国,具多方面的优势。美国除在社会发展、可持续性和安全与国内政治三项评比得分较低外,在其他项目都居前行。其中,经济、军事、科技和国际贡献四项居全球首位。

  排名第七的中国大陆,长项是人口。此外,大陆军事力量也排名全球第二,主因是军队人数多、装备数量大,且军费排名中上。

  《世界经济黄皮书》预期,美元将长期贬值。主要原因是,今年3月以来,随着经济回暖,投资人对于经济前景的预期逐渐发生改变,对于美元的避险需求下降将使得美元重拾跌势。

  其次,为应对这次金融危机,各国政府纷纷加大对金融市场的干涉,并承诺高额的救援计画,美国政府对市场干涉力度尤其大且快。这将使得投资人对于救市计画的退出心存疑虑,从而对美元长期走势感到担忧。

  最后,作为世界主要消费市场的美国在经历这次危机后,民众和政府的行为决策发生变化。这一方面体现在美国国民储蓄意愿的提高,另一方面,美政府也在反思过去依赖高消费和金融服务业所带来问题。

  2005年至2008年美国个人即期储蓄率为零,2009年以来已上升至5%左右。这一改变将意味着美国人的消费在未来将有所抑制,相关研究更显示,这种行为的改变很可能会持续相当长的时间。

  同时,美国贸易政策有可能向出口导向转变。从政策支持的角度而言,美元贬值显然有利于这种转变。因此,美元将在长期内趋于走软。

  《国际形势黄皮书》还预估,国际油价在未来一段时间,将维持在每桶60至80美元间波动。金融危机的爆发与油价下跌,推进大陆对伊朗、俄罗斯等能源出口国的大笔能源投资,这些投资未来将转变成中国大陆对全球经济的影响力。

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